‘A Critical Scenario’: Conflict on Iran Squeezes India's LPG Supplies.
The ripple effects of a military engagement being fought nearly 3,000km away are now impacting India's kitchens.
As US-Israeli strikes on Iran hinder energy transports through the key maritime chokepoint, stocks of kitchen fuel are shrinking across India, forcing restaurants to shorten food lists, shorten hours and in some cases cease operations entirely.
Social media is flooded by video clips showing queues outside cooking-gas dealers across Indian metros and localities as worries over fuel supplies grow. Commercial LPG users appear the most affected: the sharpest squeeze is in commercial eateries.
"The situation is dire. Kitchen fuel simply cannot be found," says a spokesperson of the National Restaurant Association of India.
Most restaurants run either on industrial fuel canisters or direct gas lines, and the lack of supply are now being experienced across the country. "Numerous restaurants have closed - some in Delhi, many in the southern states. People are switching to coal and wood and electric cookers to keep kitchens going."
Regional Impact
In a financial hub, media reports say up to a significant portion of hotels and restaurants are already operating at reduced capacity as business fuel stocks dry up. In the southern cities of Bangalore and Madras, some establishments say their gas stocks have depleted with scarce alternatives. "We can only make coffee and no food items - it is extremely difficult. Businesses are going to suffer," says a restaurant owner in Bengaluru.
Restaurant operators are seeking alternatives. "Food options are being cut, some are cutting lunch service and opening only for dinner," an industry representative says, adding that closures are fluctuating as supplies wax and wane. "Several establishments in Delhi were shut yesterday - two have already reopened. It's a fluid situation."
Retailers observe a spike in sales of electronic cooking appliances, with some saying they are selling out quickly.
Government Stance
Yet, the government maintains there is adequate supply.
India has more than a vast number of domestic LPG users and spokespersons say stocks are being redirected to households as geopolitical strain from the regional hostilities affect energy markets.
Approximately a majority of India's LPG is sourced from abroad, and about 90% of those imports pass through the key maritime route, the vital passage now largely blocked by the war.
The relevant department says that it ordered refineries to maximise LPG output for home needs, lifting domestic production by about 25%. Business-grade fuel is being allocated for vital industries such as healthcare and education, while distribution will be "just and open".
"A degree of anxious stocking and accumulation has been triggered by misinformation. The standard supply timeline for home fuel remains about 60 hours," says a ministry representative.
Widening Concern
Now the concern is moving beyond kitchens. On digital platforms, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a extended procession of motorbikes outside a gas outlet. "Concern is genuine," the text reads.
According to analysis from energy specialists, concerns about India's broader petroleum stocks may be exaggerated.
India imports almost all of its petroleum. Around a significant portion of its oil purchases - about 2.5-2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the passage, largely from Middle Eastern nations.
Even if petroleum transit through the Strait of Hormuz are blocked, the deficit could be partly offset by higher imports of discounted Russian crude, according to a refinery and oil markets analyst.
Based on vessel tracking and expert analysis, incremental Russian crude imports could reach around 1-1.2 million barrels a day, reducing India's effective deficit from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.
"Tens of millions of Russian oil barrels are currently on the water in the Indian Ocean and, with only two major Asian economies as major buyers, those barrels remain a ready fallback," an analyst noted.
LPG: The Real Vulnerability
The key weakness is kitchen fuel, experts note.
India consumes roughly one million barrels a day, but produces only less than half domestically, importing the rest - most of it through the Strait.
Refineries can modify output to produce a bit more LPG, but even a 10-20% boost would only increase domestic supply to about under half of demand, leaving the country heavily reliant on imports.
In short: "Petroleum shortage concerns can be partially mitigated through alternative sourcing. Processed petroleum stocks remains relatively comfortable. Kitchen fuel stocks is the real variable to monitor in the coming weeks."
What may be intensifying the concern on the ground is not just limited availability but patchy deliveries - and the familiar spectre of hoarding.
An industry representative claims price gouging.
"Distributors are exploiting the situation - illegally trading canisters and selling them at a premium. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being accumulated and sold to the highest bidder."
For now, India's oil supplies may be protected by global trade flows. But in homes across the country, the more pressing concern is simple: how to get the next refill.
