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China has deployed its coast guard into the maritime area of the Diaoyu islands and unmanned aerial vehicles past outlying Japan's territory as China escalates tensions over the Japanese prime minister’s remarks regarding Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

On Sunday, the Chinese coast guard announced that its ships carried out a “lawful patrol operation” through the territorial seas of the Diaoyu islands, which are under the control of Japan but also asserted as territory by China.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation conducted patrols within the territorial waters of the Diaoyu islands. This was a lawful patrol operation conducted by the Chinese maritime authorities to uphold its rights and interests,” officials declared.

Diplomatic Spat

China and Japan have consistently clashed around the islands but the recent developments occur during an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japan's leader, the Japanese official, told parliament that if Beijing assaults democratically ruled Taiwan it might provoke a military response from Japan.

That provoked a furious reaction from China, which has signalled it expects a withdrawal from Takaichi.

Island's Stance

China claims the island as its sovereign land and plans to incorporate it under what it terms “unification”. It has not ruled out the military option. The island's administration and citizens overwhelmingly reject the idea of Beijing's control – choosing to preserve the current situation without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if required.

An military assault by Beijing would threaten to spiral into a international confrontation, potentially involving the United States and other allies including Tokyo, which has land just 110km (68 miles) from Taiwan.

Military Activity

In Taiwan, the military authorities said on Sunday morning that it had observed 30 Chinese military aircraft, seven navy ships and one “official” ship, which was likely the maritime patrol, operating around the island over the previous day.

Official charts released showed up to three drones flying between Taiwan and the Japanese islands off its northeastern shoreline, appearing to go particularly close to the nearby Japanese island. Chinese military transits there are not rare, but uncommon, and Beijing's defense operations in the island's ADIZ generally has been low in the past month.

Earlier this weekend, the defense officials said China had been conducting another “combined military exercise” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It noted the island had dispatched military assets to track the developments. The island reports such Chinese patrols a couple of times a month as part of what Taipei says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Diplomatic Pressure

Tokyo has been experiencing increased strain from Beijing since the Japanese official made her remarks, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in the Japanese city prompting a formal protest from Tokyo by commenting that “the dirty head that sticks itself out must be cut off”.

China then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first time in more than two years, and Beijing's military authorities stated that any Japanese intervention would be certain to collapse.

Travel and Education Advisory

Late last week, Beijing cautioned its citizens against travelling to Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “appropriate measures”, though it provided no details.

Three Chinese airlines said on Saturday that tickets to Japan could be refunded or changed for free.

Adding to the tensions, China’s government on the weekend urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it characterized as an volatile safety situation.

Although not an outright prohibition, a dramatic reduction in the number of Chinese students could have a detrimental effect on academic institutions in Japan. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were studying in Japan last year, according to education statistics. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the largest demographic.

Official Commentary

Earlier this weekend, a official press commentary accused Takaichi of staging a diplomatic maneuver that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a limited skirmish; it would probably involve other nations, including the United States, and could quickly spiral into a major confrontation with unimaginable consequences.”

Policy Standpoints

The government of Taiwan says only its people can decide its future. Officials in Tokyo have traditionally refrained from discussing the island openly when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also favoured by Tokyo’s main security ally, the US.

However, Beijing's governing party says the unification of Taiwan with the mainland China is “unavoidable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, China has also been escalating its non-military activity and its statements towards Taiwan.