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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward pattern. It frequently serves as a form of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who orchestrated the biggest turnaround wins the prize. In practice, it sparks an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent leadership or simply the most shocking shock.

But this year's race is profoundly different. The pool of nominees is remarkably talented. It has been the year of comebacks. The league has been unpredictable, with recent conference winners declining and longtime underperformers rising in unison. In an normal year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in such a turbulent and entertaining year, he's competing with several other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the ideal ballot ought to shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been given the chance to display his rare talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained dominance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system instead of going rogue. It is an attack designed solely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a creative aerial game that creates wide-open receivers everywhere. Williams has thrived. And when openings haven't been there, he's been able to conjure big plays out of nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Virtually each gamble – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the organization with the level of hype he did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive dork but the type of leader that can inject new life into an organization.

During a ordinary season, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet this isn't a typical campaign!

Where his case runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term success. However Johnson comes up just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has masterminded a rapid turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall ball of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has excelled at the off-field stuff, which was not a certainty after his initial public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal staff cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, he hired first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. Yet he has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a risk that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the season in October. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has fallen away since that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him just one place ahead of other QBs.

Still