Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will prevail here and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
