🔗 Share this article

A mere 60 days ago when Morgan Rogers was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed while his coach berated him for not reading a penetrating pass. Back then, as the club failed to win in six, it wasn't clear whether his displays were a sign or the reason of the team's broader struggles.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

On Sunday, in contrast, the manager's outburst was decidedly more positive. As the in-form star drilled in his second strike to restore Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician tore off his coat, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. The team continued to a 10th successive win , having failed to win their opening six fixtures, are somehow just three points off pace-setters Arsenal.

Is Aston Villa Genuine Hopefuls?

That’s a rather hard proposition to address. The historical record, a general sense of the club, suggests not. Furthermore, they have not been completely commanding during this run, despite the fact the victories have piled up.

Per statistical analysis, on just two occasions have Villa posted an xG notably superior than the other team. For a side that have put together 10 in a row, the Villans look curiously susceptible – yet right now the margins are going in their favour.

The Reliant Strategy

Their recent policy looks like to trade blows with rivals and wait for Rogers to save the day with two precise efforts. This was the case against Leeds, it transpired in London, and it happened when facing United.

His opener stemmed from a brilliant finish, curled right inside the upright from a wide position. His brace-completing goal was essentially a slight scruffier version of his first as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

Is It Sustainable?

Logic says not. Against United, the opposition had a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. Villa have won each of their last eight by just one goal. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those fixtures.

A reversion to average could be the biggest rival the club have to face in the near future. The forward, almost certainly, will not continue to thrashing the ball into the top corner week in, week out.

Reasons for Optimism

Maybe there exists an alternative path where, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs could still find their top level.

• The main striker might resume adding to his goal tally.
• The winger might become the performer he showed in Germany.
• Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to return from injury, bolstering a sometimes shaky defence.

This could contain the possibility of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.

Savoring the Moment

However, this is a surprise. Nobody thought Aston Villa would sit in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely two months ago, no one envisioned the young forward now would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit while establishing himself as an essential England player.

The current run must be cherished for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. When Rogers stood in front of the home supporters at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. Such periods are rare in football and should be relished.