Moving from Reluctant Admiration to Unease: Russia Weighs Up the Fall of Maduro.
A shock assault on the capital under cover of darkness, culminating in the capture of the nation's leader. Within a day, the foreign force declares its intention to govern for an indefinite period.
That was the scenario Vladimir Putin imagined his full-scale invasion of Ukraine unfolding in February 2022. Instead, it was Donald Trump who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a operation labeled illegal internationally, whisking away the Kremlin's longtime partner the Venezuelan president, who now faces trial in New York.
Official Outrage and Private Thoughts
Officially, Russian officials have reacted with anger, condemning the attack as a flagrant violation of international law and a dangerous precedent. But behind the official statements, there is a sense of grudging respect – and even jealousy – at the effectiveness of a coup that Russia once imagined, but could not carry out due to a series of intelligence blunders and Ukraine's strong resistance.
“The operation was carried out competently,” wrote the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel Dva Mayora. “Most likely, this is exactly how our 'special military operation' was meant to unfold: fast, dramatic and decisive. It’s difficult to imagine [Valery] Gerasimov expected to be fighting for this long.”
Such commentary have fueled a mood of soul-searching among pro-war voices, with some openly questioning how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine morphed into a long and bloody conflict.
A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “embarrassment” on Russia's behalf given how brazen the American action seemed. “In the space of a day, the US detained Venezuela's leader and apparently concluded his own 'special military operation,’” she wrote.
Allies in Decline
For more than two decades, Venezuela worked to build a network of partners opposed to Washington – from Moscow and Beijing to Cuba and Iran – in the hope of helping to shape a new axis able to challenge Washington.
However, even with Russia's foreign minister pledging support for Maduro's regime as recently as late December, hardly any experts ever expected Moscow would intervene meaningfully.
Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, watched other important partners lose influence or deteriorate significantly – from Bashar al-Assad to an increasingly weakened Iran – exposing the constraints of the Kremlin's reach.
“For Russia, the situation is deeply uncomfortable,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a key ally and fellow traveler, and Maduro and Putin have longstanding ties, leaving Moscow with little choice but to voice condemnation. Yet providing any real assistance to a country so far away is simply impossible – for practical and operational reasons.”
The Ukraine Priority
Analysts point to a more practical calculation. Putin's priority, experts note, is Ukraine – and maintaining a good relationship with the US administration on that issue greatly exceeds the fate of Caracas.
“Putin and Trump are currently focused on a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a much larger strategic game with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a secondary concern,” Lukyanov added.
Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks
Nevertheless, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a US-friendly government takes power in Caracas, American military specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including advanced Russian-made systems.
Those include S-300VM anti-aircraft systems delivered in 2013, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.
Moscow has also provided billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.
A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is crude oil: American control over Venezuela's enormous oilfields could depress international oil prices, endangering one of Russia's most important sources of income.
“If our American 'partners' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”
A Bleak Silver Lining?
Yet, some in Moscow see room for a grim silver lining. The US seizure of Maduro, they contend, could deal a final blow to the post-war global system and usher in a more nakedly 19th-century-style world – one where might, rather than rules, determines results.
“The US administration is tough and cynical in pursuing its national interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev with endorsement. “Removing Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The principle of might makes right is evidently more powerful than ordinary justice.”
