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Well. From one perspective, the nation's long-running bid to host the Cop31 next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

It campaigned for more than three years for the rights to put on the largest global climate summit and green trade fair, which would have brought many thousands of people to the city of Adelaide next November.

This won't occur. Rather, the conference known as Cop31 is moving to the tourist destination of the Turkish coastal city, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Disappointment and Mixed Messages

This outcome will be a significant disappointment to many people who had believed hosting the environmental gathering could help speed up the country's shift from being a carbon-based economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring international focus to the survival crisis facing Pacific island nations, who would have been joint hosts.

The procedure that resulted in defeat has been an opaque mess. In recent days, there have been questions that Anthony Albanese and other high-ranking officials truly desired the bid to succeed. His statements were ambiguous at best. It translated to stories in the Australian and international media saying the government was withdrawing.

This contrasted with the communication being conveyed at the climate negotiations in the Brazilian city, where the Australian climate change minister, Chris Bowen, had just declared the country was "in it to win it".

Uncertain support is not a new issue for the hosting proposal. Although Bowen championed it, other senior members of the administration have only sometimes appeared to be interested.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, traditionally responsible for international climate negotiations, has been disengaged and at times completely against.

Evidence suggests Albanese has considered UN climate conferences a priority. He hasn't attended one since taking office in 2022. We'll never know, but some will wonder if more could have been done to secure the hosting rights.

An Alternative View

That's the negative take. However, another perspective to consider it.

In the context the climate discussions this week in South America – and from an international perspective – the decision on Wednesday night may, perversely, have been the most favorable outcome available.

The minister outlined on that day an unprecedented deal that he was working on with his Turkish counterpart, Murat Kurum. Turkey would be the Cop president, host and effective event manager, and Australia – the climate minister – would assume a role as "chief negotiator", managing nearly 200 countries on the matters that the countries actually attend for – the discussions on how to collectively address the climate crisis.

There would also be a increased emphasis on the Pacific region, including a lead-up event on an Pacific island.

Grounds for Scepticism

Multiple reasons exist for doubt. Turkey and Australia do not have a strong partnership. Specific aspects of the deal had not been completed at the time of writing. The whole thing could collapse before it begins.

However, it might represent a way to salvage something useful from what looked like an approaching car crash for the multilateral work on climate change.

Turkey is widely seen in the international community as having been determined on causing havoc in the UN climate process. This framework is supposed to work by consensus. Typically, that means if there are several nations in the competition those with weaker backing either withdraw gracefully, or a compromise is privately arranged to persuade them to step aside.

Turkey clearly had less support than the joint Pacific proposal to organize the summit. Approximately 24 of the 28 nations responsible for selecting next year's venue had backed the southern pitch.

But, exceptionally, Turkey declined to withdraw. The term "disruption" has been used frequently in recent days, and not just by local commentators.

International Dynamics

Ankara's stubbornness can be interpreted as a manifestation of the divided international landscape. With the US absent under Donald Trump, there has been no major power with the influence to confront the petroleum exporters that provided the Turks with certain protection.

The Turkish president is seen as aligned with the Russian leader. Some countries worried about a summit obstructed from the leadership if his government managed the negotiations. And the Germans did not want to have to host an unprepared Cop31 at the UN environmental office in Bonn, which is what would have occurred under international regulations if the deadlock wasn't resolved.

An Innovative Approach

A resolution was needed. The UN system is flawed and often disconcerting to observe, but global cooperation has demonstrably had an impact in the battle with global heating. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a innovative solution that keeps that going when it is most crucial.

Despite understandable criticism of the Australian government over its contradictory stance for expanding fossil fuel exports, climate activists who attend UN conferences see Bowen as a force for good in the negotiations. He has been requested to lead discussion groups at each of the four conferences he has participated in.

This matters. Although certain critics have downplayed the importance of a "chief negotiator", specialists from research centers and experienced analysts at climate talks assert it is pivotal to their success.

"Every successful Cop has been shaped by a leader directing proceedings who can listen, build consensus and achieve an significant result. We saw that in the German capital in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. The reverse happened in the Danish city in 2009," he says. "This position is critical at the conference other than making sure that delegates are fed."

Remaining Concerns

There are plenty of unresolved issues. As an illustration, civil society plays a vital role at climate conferences. How, if anything, can the Australian government do to stop a crackdown on NGO participation by the host government?

Perhaps not much. However, this doesn't prevent this deal looking like the most promising opportunity possible to have a conference that may offer something for the Pacific region, Australia and the world. This attempt is justified.